A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
